Dr Hood welcomed delegates to the first Smith School World Forum. He said the School had assembled an extraordinary array of people for the event from a range of industries and societies. All this was thanks to benefactor Martin Smith who realised we had a large number of scholars researching climate change in many different fields, but no interaction with business. This was the gap that the Smith School could fill. The School had the capacity to bring together private companies, academic institutions, governments and NGOs to meet the climate challenge. The location of the Smith School at Oxford University meant its research could be fully interdisciplinary. The challenge we faced was illustrated by a recent piece of research in Nature, the trillionth tonne, which was written by a number of academics at Oxford including Smith School Deputy Dr Dave Frame. The research showed that when we reached the trillionth tonne of CO2, in 40 years, we would see a two degree rise in temperatures. The forthcoming Copenhagen climate talks should agree targets that the whole world could accept and support. The investment required in new technology would make the costs of wars look small but it was essential we made this investment. The final challenge is communicating this challenge to the world.
Sir David explained that the World Forum audience had been handpicked for its expertise and experience. He explained that professional facilitators were also present to keep a visual record of the conference business and stimulate the search for solutions to the World Forum question 'Is there a model for low carbon growth?' He said that delegates would not discuss the science of climate change – that was a given and we already knew that we had already met the halfway point on the total emissions we could release, the point at which we risked a temperature rise of greater than 2C. To prevent this, we must act now and urgently to stay below this level of emissions.
Data from ice cores and ocean sediments showed continual bi-polar fluctuation in temperatures and CO2 emissions. In the last 12,000 years, temperatures and sea levels has been fairly stable, enabling the human race building its civilizations. Climate change was the biggest challenge we had had to face and we should remember that the 30 year time lag in the climate system meant that changes were inevitable in that period and that it was effects occurring in the next 30 years that we could influence.
MaldivesCould we de-fossilise our economies to prevent this second wave of change, Sir David asked. The Copenhagen talks were a crucial step forward for mankind. But we needed a method to ensure ratification of a new agreement. The conference could tackle the question of low-carbon growth in four ways: through cultural, technological and institutional changes, and improved global governance were the worlds governing bodies still fit for purpose? The emerging economies would suffer from expensive imports of energy so needed to lead the way on carbon neutral economic activities. We should look at manufacturing, ecosystem services and agriculture and at the infrastructure of our power systems, our mobility, urban design, land use and water, and the built environment. The world was currently undergoing an economic downturn, partially due to the remarkable economic growth and greed of the last century. We needed stimulus funds to support a new economy rather than a reinstatement of the old ways. The downturn should be seen as a stimulus for new activity not a barrier and the Smith School was a global hub to facilitate governments, the private sector and academia to meet the climate challenge.